Catching Freedom is our expert's pick (2024)

Mystik Dan is your winner of the 150th Kentucky Derby, winning in a photo finish by a hair over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Mystik Dan entered the race with with 18-1 odds.

The underdog made up ground in the second half after the pack got off to a hot start with early leaders Fierceness and Track Phantom taking the pack through first half of the race in 46.63. The finishing order is 3-2-11-4.

Mystik Dan’s trainer Ken McPeek becomes the first trainer since 1952 to win the Oaks and Derby in the same year.

I said on our podcast previewing the Derby that we recorded on Monday that I liked Catching Freedom to win this race and I'm going to stick with that pick.

His speed figures have improved in nearly every race he has run from 85 to 88 to 97 to 96 to 98.

I'm betting that Catching Freedom and his jockey Flavien Prat are going to peak here at Churchill Downs and win the 150th Derby.

Here's my biggest question before the 150th Kentucky Derby.

Is Forever Young a contender? The Japanese horse is undefeated in five races, but none of those races have been in the United States.

It did win the UAE Derby and is in the upper-tier of favorites in this race.

Here's what our handicapper Teresa Genaro had to say about Forever Young: Unlike the fellow Japanese-bred to his inside, Forever Young won a race in the main Derby prep series, the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. Undefeated in five starts, none on wet tracks, he’s been a buzz horse since that race in March, and as Japanese horses are increasingly finding success at U.S. tracks, he’s been talked up as perhaps the one that will finally win the Derby for Japan. No doubt he’s talented, but I’m skeptical.

No horse that won the UAE Derby has finished in the top 5 at the Derby. That may change today.

Here's the updated odds with 30 minutes until post time. There's no real surprises here.

Fierceness has moved to 3-1.

1. Dornoch 22-1
2. Sierra Leone 9-2
3. Mystik Dan 17-1
4. Catching Freedom 8-1
5. Catalytic 33-1
6. Just Steel 22-1
7. Honor Marie 14-1
8. Just a Touch 11-1
9. Encino (scratched)
10. T O Password 47-1
11. Forever Young 6-1
12. Track Phantom 40-1
13. West Saratoga 22-1
14. Endlessly 47-1
15. Domestic Product 28-1
16. Grand Mo the First 47-1
17. Fierceness 3-1
18. Stronghold 36-1
19. Resilience 31-1
20. Society Man 46-1
21. Epic Ride 45-1

The horses have begun walking over to the paddock for the 150th Kentucky Derby.

The new $200 million paddock has been the best new thing at this Kentucky Derby.

It's easy to see the horses from every angle of the paddock as it sits down a few feet inside a bowl and there's great energy in the area as horses prepare for their races.

Endlessly, a longshot in this race, is shown on the big screen and he seems a little frustrated with his handler walking him down the track.

It's easy to forget but this is an intimidating experience for these horses. They usually don't run in front of crowds this large and the noise coming from the track is loud.

Track Phantom took the No. 1 spot in our horse name power rankings, and the namesake of the horse — TrackPhantom.com — is actually an incredibly smart and detailed resource. We asked the man behind the site, Dave Valento, for his pick to win

I believe it is a two-horse race (at least for me) between Honor Marie and Sierra Leone. I think Sierra Leone is the best horse in the race, and has overcome less than ideal pace and bias situations. His late kick is one of the best I’ve ever seen for a 3YO colt at this time of the year. The #2 post is an issue as it gives the rider just one option. He’ll have to lag far back and come around horses. He prefers that style so not totally a bad thing. Honor Marie, my top pick, is arching into a career best. His 20-1 ML was the differentiator but I have those two as 1 and 1A. Of course, you have to give a long look to my namesake, Track Phantom. The problem is that since 1980, just 17% of the total superfecta slots have been filled by a controlling speed or a pace pressing speed. In contract, closers from last or near last have made up 48% of the total superfecta spots since 1980. He is talented but the trip and distance have me a bit concerned.

You can see all our expert picks here.

Benjamin Gies, a Louisville native, has been attending the Kentucky Derby since he was 12-years old.

Today, he's rocking a bright red suit from head-to-toe and his special 150th Kentucky Derby bowtie.

The bowtie is made by Peak bowties out of a small house off Central Avenue by Churchill Downs.